Preseason Rankings
Oregon St.
Pac-12
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+6.0#82
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace64.3#299
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#86
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#95
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 1.8% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 1.7% 1.8% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 3.7% 1.8% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.3% 20.3% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 15.1% 16.0% 4.0%
Average Seed 9.1 9.1 10.5
.500 or above 65.4% 67.9% 34.6%
.500 or above in Conference 44.5% 46.1% 25.0%
Conference Champion 4.4% 4.6% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 7.2% 6.6% 15.3%
First Four4.3% 4.6% 1.1%
First Round17.2% 18.1% 6.2%
Second Round7.6% 8.1% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen2.7% 2.9% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.9% 1.0% 0.2%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Home) - 92.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.3 - 2.30.3 - 2.3
Quad 1b0.9 - 2.91.2 - 5.1
Quad 23.0 - 4.54.2 - 9.6
Quad 35.5 - 3.19.7 - 12.7
Quad 46.7 - 0.916.4 - 13.6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 282   UC Riverside W 73-61 93%    
  Nov 10, 2018 173   Wyoming W 78-71 82%    
  Nov 16, 2018 102   Old Dominion W 65-63 57%    
  Nov 18, 2018 51   Missouri L 65-69 37%    
  Nov 19, 2018 125   Penn W 71-68 61%    
  Nov 25, 2018 189   @ Long Beach St. W 77-70 65%    
  Dec 01, 2018 190   Missouri St. W 70-63 82%    
  Dec 09, 2018 71   @ Saint Louis L 65-66 35%    
  Dec 15, 2018 64   Texas A&M L 69-71 52%    
  Dec 17, 2018 234   Pepperdine W 76-66 86%    
  Dec 21, 2018 159   Kent St. W 73-67 77%    
  Dec 29, 2018 313   Central Connecticut St. W 74-59 93%    
  Jan 05, 2019 17   @ Oregon L 65-73 18%    
  Jan 10, 2019 58   USC L 69-72 51%    
  Jan 13, 2019 50   UCLA L 72-76 48%    
  Jan 17, 2019 43   @ Arizona St. L 74-78 27%    
  Jan 19, 2019 66   @ Arizona L 70-72 33%    
  Jan 24, 2019 191   Washington St. W 75-68 81%    
  Jan 26, 2019 42   Washington L 69-73 46%    
  Jan 31, 2019 84   @ Colorado W 69-68 40%    
  Feb 02, 2019 87   @ Utah W 67-66 41%    
  Feb 07, 2019 108   Stanford W 72-70 67%    
  Feb 09, 2019 198   California W 73-65 81%    
  Feb 16, 2019 17   Oregon L 65-73 36%    
  Feb 21, 2019 50   @ UCLA L 72-76 29%    
  Feb 23, 2019 58   @ USC L 69-72 31%    
  Feb 28, 2019 66   Arizona L 70-72 53%    
  Mar 03, 2019 43   Arizona St. L 74-78 46%    
  Mar 06, 2019 42   @ Washington L 69-73 27%    
  Mar 09, 2019 191   @ Washington St. W 75-68 63%    
Projected Record 16.4 - 13.6 8.2 - 9.8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 4.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 5.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 6.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.1 3.4 1.6 0.1 0.0 7.5 4th
5th 0.2 2.3 4.0 2.0 0.2 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.5 4.6 2.7 0.3 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.6 3.2 0.5 0.0 11.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.1 3.6 0.8 0.0 11.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.4 3.5 0.9 0.0 11.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 2.4 3.8 2.9 0.6 0.0 10.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 2.1 2.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 7.6 11th
12th 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.9 12th
Total 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.8 6.3 8.1 10.2 11.4 12.8 11.1 9.7 7.8 6.2 4.3 2.7 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 96.2% 0.7    0.7 0.1
15-3 79.6% 1.2    0.9 0.3 0.1
14-4 46.2% 1.2    0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-5 15.1% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.4% 4.4 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 58.9% 41.1% 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.3% 100.0% 43.8% 56.2% 2.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.7% 99.9% 32.8% 67.1% 4.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-3 1.5% 97.2% 18.0% 79.2% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.6%
14-4 2.7% 91.6% 13.3% 78.4% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 90.4%
13-5 4.3% 79.6% 13.5% 66.2% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.9 76.5%
12-6 6.2% 62.7% 12.2% 50.6% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.3 57.6%
11-7 7.8% 35.2% 8.8% 26.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.1 28.9%
10-8 9.7% 20.7% 5.1% 15.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.7 16.5%
9-9 11.1% 8.6% 3.3% 5.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.2 5.5%
8-10 12.8% 4.1% 3.5% 0.6% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.3 0.6%
7-11 11.4% 2.0% 1.8% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.2 0.1%
6-12 10.2% 2.6% 2.6% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.9
5-13 8.1% 1.4% 1.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.0
4-14 6.3% 0.3% 0.3% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.2
3-15 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 3.8
2-16 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 1.9
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 19.3% 5.0% 14.3% 9.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.9 3.0 4.0 2.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 80.7 15.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.0 49.1 3.5 47.4